8.9 Future Impact of Traffic Growth
At a national level, traffic is forecast to increase largely as a result of people enjoying longer lives, increased economic activity and because households are expected to become more numerous. The main single factor leading to traffic growth is considered to be increasing car ownership. All forecasts are uncertain and therefore the 1997 National Road Traffic Forecasts were presented as a low and high range, together with a central estimate which is considered to be the most likely outcome. Overall traffic is expected to increase by 1.4% per annum (compound, central estimate up to 2031).
In addition to the national forecasts, the DfT prepares forecasts of car trips at the Local Authority District level. These reflect the expected local growth in population and car ownership. The forecasts for the districts in Cornwall have been combined to produce forecasts for car traffic growth in Cornwall. County forecasts for other vehicle types are the same as those nationally.
Use of local forecasts for car traffic produces low and high estimates for overall traffic growth in Cornwall for the period up to 2031 of 0.9% and 1.8% per annum respectively. The actual traffic growth and forecasts from 1996 to 2031 are given in Figure 10.4. These rates are similar to the national forecasts for this period, despite the expected significant continued growth in population and the improvement in the economic performance of the County. However, it should be borne in mind that they give a very general overall view of growth on a Countywide basis rather than the impact on particular sections of the network.
Road transport is expected to remain the dominant form of transport in Cornwall. Clearly, the constrained parts of the road network, notably in urban areas, will not be able to accommodate the predicted traffic growth. The outcome will therefore be worsening traffic congestion, with the associated economic and environmental impacts.
Transport has a considerable impact upon the environment. Road transport is a major source of many air pollutants, especially carbon monoxide, particulates, nitrogen oxide, and carbon dioxide. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most abundant greenhouse gas, responsible for at least 50% of global warming. Energy consumption from road transport constitutes the fastest growing source of CO2 emissions. The tighter standards and improvements in fuels and vehicle design that are continually being introduced have helped reduce the emissions which cause greatest concern, but in the longer term such gains could be lost if traffic growth remains unchecked.
Traffic related noise and light pollution are also issues of concern. Noise can have a significant impact on people's quality of life and the 'skyglow' from light pollution has changed our enjoyment of this element of our environment.
Road transport is expected to remain the dominant form of transport in Cornwall. Nevertheless, the overall approach must aim to achieve both a reduction in the need for and length of journeys and encourage alternative means of travel other than the private car.
Through our spatial planning, we need to ensure that development is located in such a way that the need to travel is reduced. The location of jobs, healthcare, education, retail and leisure facilities can minimise the need to travel, and foster the integrated delivery of services at a local level. In addition, improvements in information technology will increase the viability of home working, and travel planning will greatly assist in the process. There is a particular requirement for transport authorities to continue to work in partnership to ensure that the community as a whole is positively committed across the board to delivering transport solutions that contribute towards the 'shared' priorities.
There is clear scope to continue the process of widening travel choice, improving transport integration, promoting public transport, walking and cycling, and raising public awareness of the issues. The management of the existing transport network is also important, with cost-effective maintenance vital to sustain structural integrity and serviceability standards. The road corridor has been identified as a valuable habitat for a significant number of species of wildlife. Maintaining this species-rich environment has an important role to play in sustaining the biodiversity of the County's hedgerows and verges.