Annex 3 - Bus Strategy 2006 - 2011

8.01m in 2003/04

7.45m (-7%)

7.69m (-5%)

7.84m (-2%)

8.17m (+2%)

8.33m (+4%)

Changes in the bus network over the last couple of years and the provision of key, quality services have begun to result in a turnaround in patronage. The evidence of current and future travel patterns as set out in Chapter 4 of the LTP2 indicates that targeted investment in the key corridors will result in patronage growth.

The bus patronage target that was submitted in the Provisional LTP2 was based on the provisional programme and feedback from the operators together with predicted increases as a result of the new Concessionary Fares scheme in April 2006. Since the submission of the Provisional document in July 2005, the largest bus operator in the County, First Devon and Cornwall, have reported patronage losses in 2005/06 of 10%.  This equates to a 6% loss overall.  The company are currently unclear as to the factors behind these recent losses given the slight upturn in patronage experienced in 04/05.  All of the other bus operators in the County are showing a steady increase in patronage figures.  As a consequence of these losses, First are planning an immediate head office internal review to establish the reasons and possible solutions to the problem. 

To compound this patronage loss, First have also recently raised their bus fares by up to 20% across all of their services. This unforeseen event is expected to have a significant negative effect on bus services: as much as a 10% decrease in patronage across 70% of the network (a 6% decrease overall). Price elasticity modelling has been used to predict the impact of this likely patronage loss against the anticipated growth from the other operators in the County, and the impact of the Concessionary Fares scheme (based on the latest evidence). All of these factors result in a total patronage increase of 4% by 2011 (this actually equates to a 16% increase, taking into account the 12% decrease in patronage overall).  Of this total increase, 4% is considered to be as a result of the cost element of the Concessionary Fares scheme.

The external pressures on this target emphasise the importance of maintaining our commitment to delivering a high quality network across the County.

As is evident from the information above, this target is at significant risk of future fare increases that we do not have direct control over. Failure of bus operators to actually deliver high quality bus services through their day-to-day operations also remains a significant risk to this target. This can be mitigated to a certain extent through development of robust quality partnerships and contract procedures where appropriate.

Bus passenger returns are provided on a quarterly basis from all bus companies.

36% in 2003/04

40%

N/A

N/A

46%

N/A

Consistent feedback through consultation with stakeholders and the public has highlighted the need for high quality public transport information.  The LTP2 strategy includes these 'soft' measures and this should reflect in an increase in satisfaction, at least with users of public transport.

We have fundamental concerns with the way in which this Best Value target is measured and hence why it represents such a challenge to us.  In Cornwall, the Best Value survey is carried out via a completely random postal survey.  In a large rural County, only a very small proportion of the survey respondents are likely to be regular public transport users. This limits the number of positive responses.  To compound this issue, the postal survey method tends to show lower levels of satisfaction than face to face or telephone interviews, which is the method used by some other Local Authorities.  For these reasons, whilst it is noted that the target still leaves us in the lower quartile (threshold 54%), a 10% increase is still viewed as extremely challenging.

The greatest risk to achieving this target lies in the way in which it is monitored (which is dictated by national Best Value guidance).  There is also a risk (in terms of public transport user satisfaction) associated with the cooperation of all public transport operators in the development and distribution of accurate and easy to use information.  The latter risk can be mitigated, at least with bus information, through the County's Bus Information Strategy.

Satisfaction levels with public transport information is measured via a postal survey on a triennial basis.  Given our concerns regarding how this is monitored, we intend to supplement this target by measuring the satisfaction levels of actual public transport users, which past experience has shown to be much higher.  This will be done in two ways: (a) Filtering out the public transport users from the Best Value survey results; and (b) annual surveys carried out through the People's Panel, Youth Forum and targeting public transport users via on street surveys and through timetable distribution.  A target for public transport user satisfaction with information will be set in 2006/07.

38%  in 2003/04

40%

N/A

N/A

46%

N/A

Extensive consultation and analysis of traffic flows has demonstrated the potential to improve the quality of bus services in the County.  This supports a target that will at least improve bus users satisfaction with services.

We have fundamental concerns with the way in which this Best Value target is measured and hence why it represents such a challenge to us.  In Cornwall, the Best Value survey is carried out via a completely random postal survey.  In a large rural County, only a very small proportion of the survey respondents are likely to be regular bus users. This limits the number of positive responses.  To compound this issue, the postal survey method tends to show lower levels of satisfaction than face to face or telephone interviews which is the method used by some other Local Authorities.  For these reasons, whilst it is noted that the target still leaves us in the lower quartile (threshold 54%), an 8% increase is still viewed as extremely challenging.

The greatest risk to achieving this target lies in the monitoring method although the risks associated with the achievement of BV 102 are relevant e.g. the performance and reliability of bus operators.

The satisfaction level with bus services is measured via a postal survey on a triennial basis.  Given our concerns regarding how this is monitored, we intend to supplement this target by measuring the satisfaction levels of actual bus users, which past experience has shown to be much higher.  This will be done in two ways: (a) filtering out the bus users from the Best Value survey results; and (b) annual surveys carried out through the People's Panel, Youth Forum and with bus users along the key quality corridors.  A target for bus user satisfaction will be set in 2006/07.

Super Output Areas with Improved Accessibility to One or More Services (supported by demonstrable needs met)

80% of Super Output Areas to have improved accessibility to one or more service.

246 Super Output Areas with none or poor access in 2005/06

38%

52%

65%

75%

80%

A significant amount of work was carried out to define the Accessibility Action Plans and therefore the indicators.  The detailed work is set out in Annex 5 and Sections 8.7 and 8.8 of the LTP2.  The indicator supports the LAA accessibility indicator.  The local geography and sparsity of population in Cornwall means that an indicator based purely on improving journey time to a particular service is not appropriate.

The indicator has been identified using a combination of the Accession software and needs based analysis (largely carried out through our key partners e.g. Cornwall Strategic Partnership and Rural Transport Partnerships) and represents a realistic picture of what can be achieved through delivery of the 2006/07 Action Plan.  The target is very outcome led and will require a lot of supporting work to collaborate it, but is considered necessary to achieve a difference in accessibility for a rural county such as Cornwall.

The success of delivering the Accessibility Strategy largely depends on our partners in the Districts, health, education and employment in recognising their role in improving accessibility and taking responsibility for the impact of service delivery on accessibility in Cornwall.  We have a key role to play in enforcing this message but the solutions cannot always be transport focused.

The other risks to achieving the target lie in the stability of the conventional bus network e.g. if further rural routes are withdrawn in the period of the LTP2 then this will change the patterns of accessibility across the County and therefore impact on the target.

Progress on strategy delivery will be reported on a quarterly basis through the LAA and Cornwall Strategic Partnership.  The target will be monitored using Accession and needs based assessments that will be led by the RTPs. It will include patronage monitoring and passenger surveys (which will pick up on satisfaction, needs met and journey purpose).

88% of buses starting route on time by 2010/11

79.5% in 2005/06

80.5%

81.5%

83%

85%

88%

86% of buses on time at intermediate timing points by 2010/11

77% in 2005/06

78%

79%

81%

83%

86%

Feedback from the bus operators along with traffic flow data outlined in Section 4.7.3 of the LTP2 suggests that bus punctuality is going to be a critical means of ensuring the delivery of indicators BV 102 and BV 104.

The biggest impacts on current bus punctuality figures are in the main urban centres and in the holiday ‘hotspots’ during the summer. The baseline figure demonstrates the challenge in achieving this target. There are some limited measures that can be put in place to help alleviate it that are anticipated will have a positive impact on the baseline.

All instances of bus delays cannot be accounted for particularly with such fluctuations in traffic during the peak season. This puts the target at risk of delivery in addition to relying on good performance levels from the operators.

The baseline is an average derived from surveys carried out between 15th August to 21st August 2005 and 27th February and 3rd March 2006, carried out at 21 locations across Cornwall. The surveys have demonstrated where the most serious bus punctuality problems occur on the network and where, potentially, the greatest outcomes can be achieved.  Duplicate surveys will be carried out twice yearly during the period of the LTP2.

Investment in new electronic ticket machines (ETMs) with increased functionality will lead to a wider roll-out of real time information.  Real time information is expected to be of several forms one of which is using SMS protocols.  Almex OPTIMA ETMs are designed to accept additional circuit boards to provide this functionality.  This has the associated benefit of providing the driver with a constant update of the buses service performance by a real time display of early or late running.  Using the MSF* there should be no doubt as to the actual time of the public transport service.

*MSF is the radio signal that broadcasts the national time standard for the UK. The MSF service broadcast from Rugby is the principal means of disseminating the UK national standards of time and frequency that are maintained by the National Physical Laboratory. Transmission is 24 hours a day, and the carrier frequency is maintained at 60 kHz

94% in 2005/06

95%

96%

97%

98%

99%

60% in 2005/06

65%

75%

80%

85%

90%

High quality and accessible transport information is consistently raised through consultation with the public as being an important element to encourage bus and rail use (Section 4.8.2).

This target has been set at a regional level. It is considered stretching to ensure accurate data to this standard.

Previous experience has shown that the risk to the achievement of this target lies with the database manager. Hence, this can be mitigated by active management of the South West Trip consortium.

The target is monitored through the South West Trip consortium.

5% increase in summer public transport  patronage at defined locations by 2010/11

Index = 100 in 2005/06

100

101

103

104

105

The evidence base demonstrates the impact that increased seasonal traffic has on the network.  The 'Tourism on Board' survey (August 2005) showed that a high percentage of respondents had left the car at home and were choosing to make trips around the County by public transport.

Currently, around 85% of all visitors access the County by private car and this trend is likely to continue.  In conjunction with our partners, we will target visitors throughout the LTP2 period with ‘car free’ travel initiatives from their holiday destinations, encouraging internal travel by non-car means.  A growth of 5% is considered stretching given that car-free travel has remained at the same level over recent years.

A decrease in visitor numbers to the County would have a negative impact on this target.  Success in achieving the target will depend largely on public transport operators to deliver, and through the co-operation of our partners, particularly in the tourism industry.

This target will be monitored from June-September area-wide public transport patronage figures in Newquay, Penzance, Falmouth and St Ives.  This will be factored against visitor numbers to the County and seasonal traffic flows.